US-Iran Ceasefire MoU Boosts Risk Appetite, South Korea Trading Halted

Market Reaction to Geopolitical De-escalation

Global equities surged on Thursday following reports of a potential US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with South Korean markets leading gains after a trading halt was lifted. Kospi futures rose as much as 5% during the session, reflecting optimism over reduced geopolitical tensions.

The move comes after Iran confirmed it would sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the United States on Friday, though officials cautioned that military readiness remains high. The tentative truce follows weeks of heightened volatility in energy markets and emerging market currencies amid fears of broader conflict.

Risk Sentiment and Currency Implications

The news-driven rally underscores a shift in global risk sentiment, with investors favoring cyclical assets and high-beta currencies. The South Korean won strengthened against the dollar, while commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars also gained traction.

For Forex traders, the development highlights the sensitivity of emerging market currencies to geopolitical developments. However, caution persists given Iran's warning that its forces remain on high alert, suggesting any reversal in sentiment could trigger sharp corrections.

Technical and Strategic Outlook

From a technical perspective, the Kospi index faces resistance near its 200-day moving average, with bullish momentum contingent on sustained risk appetite. Traders will monitor upcoming US economic data and central bank communications for further direction.

While the ceasefire MoU offers short-term relief, structural concerns around energy supply chains and Middle Eastern stability continue to underpin volatility in oil prices and currency markets.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results.